Concept: Trading strategy based on candlesticks. Research Goal: Performance verification of the bearish engulfing candlestick with time/target exits. Specification: Table 1. Results: Figure 1-2. Trade Setup: Bearish Engulfing Candlestick: Short Trades: (Open[Yesterday] < Close[Yesterday]) & (Open[Today] > Close[Yesterday]) & (Close[Today] < Open[Yesterday]). Trade Entry: Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Short Trades: A trade is taken at a predetermined amount below the open. The predetermined amount is called the stretch. A sell stop is placed at [Open − Stretch]. Trade Exit: Table 1. Portfolio: 42 futures markets from four major market sectors (commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equity indexes). Data: 32 years since 1980. Testing Platform: MATLAB®.
II. Sensitivity Test
All 3-D charts are followed by 2-D contour charts for Profit Factor, Sharpe Ratio, CAGR, and Maximum Drawdown. The final two pictures show sensitivity of Equity Curve in $ and risk multiples.
Noise: The difference between the open for each day and the closest extreme to the open on each day (Noise[i] = min(High[i] − Open[i], Open[i] − Low[i])). Average_Noise: The simple moving average of Noise over a period of Stretch_Length. Stretch[i] = Average_Noise[i] * Stretch_Multiple. Index: i ~ Current Bar.
Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Short Trades: A trade is taken at a predetermined amount below the open. The predetermined amount is called the stretch (defined above). A sell stop is placed at [Open − Stretch].
Time Exit: nth day at the close, n = Time_Index. Stretch Exit: Short Trades: A buy stop is placed at [Open + Stretch]. The value is calculated at the day of entry. Target Exit: Short Trades: A buy at the close is placed if Low ≤ [Entry − $Target]. $Target is the multiple of the initial risk per trade (defined by exits) and Target_Index. Stop Loss Exit: ATR(ATR_Length) is the Average True Range over a period of ATR_Length. ATR_Stop is a multiple of ATR(ATR_Length). Short Trades: A buy stop is placed at [Entry + ATR(ATR_Length) * ATR_Stop].
CFTC RULE 4.41: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.