Concept: A trend-following model based on Heikin-Ashi bars. Research Goal: Performance verification of the Heikin-Ashi reversal concept. Specification: Table 1. Results: Figure 1-2. Trade Setup: Long Trades: HaClose[i − 1] > HaOpen[i − 1]. Short Trades: HaClose[i − 1] < HaOpen[i − 1]. Index: i ~ Current Bar. HaOpen and HaClose are Heikin-Ashi prices defined below (Table 1). Trade Entry: Long Trades: A buy at the open is placed after a bullish Setup. Short Trades: A sell at the open is placed after a bearish Setup. Trade Exit: Table 1. Portfolio: 42 futures markets from four major market sectors (commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equity indexes). Data: 33 years since 1980. Testing Platform: MATLAB®.
II. Sensitivity Test
All 3-D charts are followed by 2-D contour charts for Profit Factor, Sharpe Ratio, Ulcer Performance Index, CAGR, Maximum Drawdown, Percent Profitable Trades, and Avg. Win / Avg. Loss Ratio. The final picture shows sensitivity of Equity Curve.
Average Bars: AvgOpen[i] = Average (Open, Look_Back), where AvgOpen[i] is an average open price over the Look_Back period. AvgHigh[i] = Average (High, Look_Back) AvgLow[i] = Average (Low, Look_Back) AvgClose[i] = Average (Close, Look_Back) Heikin-Ashi (1st bar): HaClose = (AvgOpen + AvgHigh + AvgLow + AvgClose)/4 HaOpen = (AvgOpen + AvgClose)/2 HaHigh = AvgHigh HaLow = AvgLow Heikin-Ashi (i > 1): HaClose[i] = (AvgOpen[i] + AvgHigh[i] + AvgLow[i] + AvgClose[i])/4 HaOpen[i] = (HaOpen[i − 1] + HaClose[i − 1])/2 HaHigh[i] = max(AvgHigh[i], HaOpen[i], HaClose[i]) HaLow[i] = min(AvgLow[i], HaOpen[i], HaClose[i]) Index: i ~ Current Bar.
Look_Back = [1, 141], Step = 5;
Long Trades: HaClose[i − 1] > HaOpen[i − 1]. Short Trades: HaClose[i − 1] < HaOpen[i − 1]. Index: i ~ Current Bar.
Long Trades: A buy at the open is placed after a bullish Setup. Short Trades: A sell at the open is placed after a bearish Setup.
Time Exit: nth day at the close, n = Time_Index. Stop Loss Exit: ATR(ATR_Length) is the Average True Range over a period of ATR_Length. ATR_Stop is a multiple of ATR(ATR_Length). Long Trades: A sell stop is placed at [Entry − ATR(ATR_Length) * ATR_Stop]. Short Trades: A buy stop is placed at [Entry + ATR(ATR_Length) * ATR_Stop].
CFTC RULE 4.41: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.